Minus 20 percent per market doubling
Newsletter from PEGE - Planetary Engineering Group Earth from 2018-07-29.
2*-20 is the short form of the phenomenon
For the first time in today easily findable price tables visible: In the oil industry sank from 1859 to 1893 with each doubling of the world market prices by 20 percent. In the last decades probably everyone has had experience with the phenomenon 2* -20. Computers, notebooks, mobile phones, smartphones, televisions, photovoltaic, lithium batteries
2*-20 for photovoltaic, how much longer?
The oil ended the 2*-20 phenomenon in 1893. How long will the constant price reductions in photovoltaics continue? The price consists of the following components:
Today, photovoltaic electricity is claimed to have a CO2 emission, which is calculated from the cost of production and its average lifetime. Everyone claims something different. For example, IPCC claims 45 g CO2 / kWh in 2014. A collection of studies is available from Prof. Volker Quaschning. Unfortunately, only one single study is relevant: only Knapp Jester states the production effort in kWh of electricity per kW of peak photovoltaic. Everything else is "make a fire" studies. That means the energy expenditure is given in kWh combustion of primary energy. Unfortunately, this single relevant study with kWh of electricity production cost for 1 kW peak photovoltaic dates back to the year 2000.
- profit margin
- Investment in production facilities
- work (can be reduced by automation)
- Raw materials
For monocrystalline silicon cells, Knapp Jester reports 5600 kWh in 2000. I have just received an offer from Altius Solar from the EU member state Romania: 35 cents per watt peak for monocrystalline modules at acceptance of 1 MW. Now, let's divide this offer by the amount of electricity in the Knapp Jester study of 2000: 6.25 cents per kWh of electricity, but where is the profit margin, the payoff of the production machines, the pay of the workers?
So we can assume that the production cost has dropped, after all, the price since 2000 has fallen by about 90%. But how long will prices continue to fall?
A major cost factor in the production of photovoltaics was the price of fossil energy. Fossil energy is becoming more expensive. Fossil energy can be even more expensive with the introduction of a CO2 tax. But photovoltaic production has already broken through this resistance and the associated price risks: US $ 0.0179 per kWh for solar power in Saudi Arabia. Power storage to enable a 24/7 operation, 22% per year cheaper.
This means that the price of fossil energy can not exert a negative influence on the price of photovoltaics in the future, on the contrary, if fossil energy is more expensive the demand increases and the next doubling of the world market with 20% price reduction happens even faster.
Influences on the price of electricity
Depending on the location, different amounts of electricity can be produced with the same photovoltaic and a different amount of storage technology is required. Compared to a sunny desert area, photovoltaics not only has here half of the annual yield, in addition to the summer / winter balancing of power to gas, underground gas storage and power generation in combined cycle power plants considerable amounts of infrastructure and losses due to the modest efficiency of this method.
This means that 100% renewable energy will not be twice but three times more expensive than in a sunny desert area. Never mind, everyday power applications like car driving will be much cheaper than fossil fuel today, but heavy industry is facing new challenges and scales. This is similar to 2 centuries ago in the first industrial revolution.
At that time, the logical choice of location was close to large deposits of hard coal, this time the logical choice of location becomes sunny desert areas. Solar power will become cheaper and cheaper as new production equipment and raw materials for photovoltaics will be produced with increasingly cheaper electricity. This is an absolute necessity for our survival, today's humanity is far too poor for planetary restoration.
Lithium from seawater - carbon from air
Extremely cheap solar power will enable things that we still think unthinkable today: recovering lithium from seawater, extracting carbon from the air, reducing the CO2 of over 410 ppm to a level that is conducive to the climate, that is planetary renewal. There may be a "non-carbon tax" on all materials that can be replaced with carbon. Allot the carbon we burned in the last 2 centuries to a more useful task.
According to current knowledge, it requires 8,000 kWh of electricity to filter 1 ton of CO2 from the air and split it into carbon and oxygen. Unfortunately, for the ton, most of the weight is the two oxygen atoms of the CO2. The price of electricity still has to go down a lot, so that 30,000 kWh of electricity become economical for 1 tonne of carbon. This is the new industrial revolution, our survival depends on it.
Resistance against science as with Galileo Galilei
The earth is the center of the universe, the sun revolves around the earth. This world view became untenable through the discoveries of Galileo Galilei.
But instead of giving up scientifically untenable positions and adapting to the new findings, the Catholic Church has accused Galileo Galilei. Dogmatics against science.
Today the scenes around Galileo Galilei are repeating: The doomsday sect "Limits of Growth" denies all these new insights into the price evolution and possibilities of renewable energy, the consequent global prosperity, the consequent possibility of planentation renovation. Again dogmatists against science.
The question whether the earth revolves around the sun or the sun around the earth was in the Middle Ages for the fate of mankind insignificant.
This time, however, it's all about survival. The areas in the area of influence of the doomsday "Limits of growth" have, according to circumstances, a very low level of expansion of renewable energy.
A real energy turnaround only develops outside of the sphere of influence of the doomsday sect: all the efforts in China with solar power, wind power, storage technology for electricity, conversion to electric mobility and Saudi Arabia with the plan to install until 2030 200 GW photovoltaic.
Just a high-ranking member has repeated the dogmas again, 7.6 billion people are too much. Anyone who approaches the problems with such an attitude can only lose, suggests the suspicion, only wants to lose.
Over the next 20 years, a tripling of the global economy with a simultaneous reduction of fossil energy down to almost zero.
Investment Avalanche - Innovation Avalanche - Economic Boom
Even if the current price development reduces the costs of reducing CO2 in the atmosphere, 12,000 billion a year are not affordable for today's humanity. However, it is affordable in the case of a threefold increase in the global economy and further cost reduction. Why should it be affordable? Thawing Permafrost floors and outgassing methane hydrate are an enormous threat potential for climate development. A little reduction could be too little. Even 100% less CO2 emissions could still be too little. 200% less, ie no further human CO2 emission plus active reduction by filtering and splitting, should be sufficient.
For this, the economic conditions must be created. That this can only work with the creation of worldwide wealth is nevertheless a nice side effect.
Religion in the sense of relegere
Latin relegere: to consider carefully, to contemplate, to think about repeatedly, to be thoughtful in view of an important issue.
This should be the first duty of beings "created in the image of God". In the natural sciences, this happens all the time, before their achievements can have only the greatest respect. The opposite must be said about the politics.
The Infinitism certainly describes the best possible for all currently living humans, nature and future generations to an unimaginably distant future. This spread will require much time and labor.
Please support this lengthy tedious activity with your membership.
Short description of all members translated to English
The organization to support infinitism has now 54 members from 4 different countries. One international know VIP, 3 localy known VIPs.
When You are not from Germany, Austria, Switzerland or Denmark, take the opportunity to be the first member from Your country.
My book "Calculation ERROR" is now free as a PDF.
In Helsinki, Trump does exactly what he was elected for: peace and cooperation with Russia. What would the world look like today if Wallace had become president in 1948?
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